CCW Wild Card Round Preview

6:30 - #5 Moonshots vs. #4 Hounds

Expected Starters:
Moonshots: Will Smithey (1.00 ERA, 55 Ks, 75 FIP)
Hounds: Austin Alles (2.40 ERA, 36 Ks, 48 FIP)

Preview: 
The Hounds and Moonshots have seen a lot of each other recently - playing all 3 games against one another in the last 2 weeks of play - and they’ll see even more of each other in the Wild Card round. The teams boast similar, potent offenses - with elite threats leading them (Smithey & Jones) and nearly equally as dangerous right-hand men behind them (Hopkins and Alles). All 4 of those guys finished the regular season in the top 6 of offensive value, and with the exception of Hopkins, who got the bulk of his production in the early stages of the season, they are all getting hot at the right time. Coby Taylor - who just turned in a 4 home run game last week - and Josh Hart - who is a dangerous power hitter on slow pitch - are expected to round out the Hounds’ playoff lineup. T-Greg will also hit for the Moonshots, and then they’ll have an interesting decision to make regarding the 4th hole, as both Connor Smith and Nolan Karwoski are valid options. 

These two pitchers faced off just last week, with Smithey narrowly out-deuling Alles in that contest. Smithey has, once again, put together a pitching season better than anyone not named Myc Witty, and is a guy that seemingly plays even better when the stakes get higher. That said, he is not unhittable, having been tagged for at least one run twice and two runs once in his 5 outings this season. Alles has taken another step forward on the bump this year, holding opponents to 3 runs or fewer in each of his outings. If he can be on the board consistently and keep the Moonshots away from slow pitch opportunities, Alles has the ability to match Smithey on the mound.

X-Factors:
Moonshots: Tyler Gregory
T-Greg, in what is reportedly his final year in a long and storied CCW career, has unfortunately had a somewhat forgettable season at the plate. He’s tied for 16th in offensive value - nothing to sneeze at, but pedestrian for a guy we’re used to seeing in the top 10 - with a .268 batting average and 4 homers. But all of that potential disappointment could be erased with a strong postseason showing. He’s no stranger to the big moment as a staple on championship Moonshot teams, and when Smithey is inevitably intentionally walked in an important moment, T-Greg seems to go Super Saiyan in those moments. I’m putting money on a big game from Gregory.

Hounds: Austin Alles
Alles is one of two guys in the top 15 offensive players this season to have only played 11 games, which speaks to the quality of his performance, even if the volume is limited. Further, he may be swinging the hottest bat in the league, coming off a Hitter of the Week award in which he went 8/11 with 5 home runs across their two games. He’s also the current holder of the “Most Likely to Actually Run Through the Dirtyard Outfield Wall to Make a Play” distinction. Combine these, and the potential for a winning game on the mound, and we’re on “The Austin Alles Game” watch. 

The Verdict:
This game has all the makings of a hard fought, low scoring affair. I expect the Moonshots’ bats to get theirs against Alles and put up a few runs, like they did last time. It’s hard to bet against Smithey on the mound, but he’ll be facing this same red-hot offense for the second time this week, making his assignment more challenging (but you could say the same thing for Alles). The big question is who wins out in a strength-vs-strength matchup between Smithey’s arm and the Hounds’ bats? If Alles, DJ, and Coby can do enough damage, this could be anyone’s game. 



8:00 - #6 Yakkers vs. #3 8 Balls

Expected Starters:
Yakkers: Dustin Dowden (0.81 ERA, 50 Ks, 68 FIP)
8 Balls: Reid Werner (1.67 ERA, 46 Ks, 58 FIP)

Preview: 
Despite the divergent roads these teams took to get here, the 8 Balls and Yakkers are actually pretty similarly constructed. Both offenses are power-dependent, slow-pitch mashers who have the downside of getting shut down if the balls aren’t leaving the yard. Both pitching staffs are led by a shut-down ace, but struggle to compete with the depth behind them. Those aces will surely get the ball tonight, with Werner throwing for the 8 Balls after a long rest between starts, and Dowden going for the Yaks. Dowden has too quietly put up an elite season on the mound - his ERA and total pitching value are third in the league, each. He’s on the board as much as anyone, and mixes in and locates a handful of different pitches, making him an extremely frustrating assignment for batters. Reid only threw 4 games this season - one fewer than any other ace - but still finished in the top 5 in Ks and just outside the top 5 in total value. 

The Yakkers' offense this season has been disappointing on the whole, but has shown an ability to deliver the big hit when it’s needed. Rudy Lyon leads the offense, with his 8 home runs falling one shy of the top 5 in the league. Behind him, Dalton Lewis has had a breakout campaign with the bat, collecting at least one hit in all but two of his 13 games. Dowden, who already has one home run against Reid this year, will slot in as well, and Justin Swingler, if playoff eligible, will round out the lineup. For the 8 Balls, Werner’s return to the lineup will be a much-needed wrinkle to the otherwise homer-or-bust nature of the team. Alex Gurtcheff is having a career year at the plate, leading the league in home runs and finishing 3rd in total offensive value. Cody House is hot entering the playoffs, going 7-10 with 3 home runs last week. And Jay Wilsey has been dependable all year, with a well-rounded approach and willingness to create some chaos on the basepaths. 

X-Factors:
Yakkers: Dalton Lewis
It feels like every week DLewy has come up big in a clutch spot, and in a game that looks likely to be a low-scoring one, the Yaks may need him to do so again to pull out a win. Lewis has become a weapon in slow-pitch opportunities and is holding his own more and more in fast-pitch. Whether in regulation or a potential jack-off tie breaker, don’t be surprised if the game hinges on a DLewy at-bat. 

8 Balls: Reid Werner
It sounds weird to call the 8 Balls’ manager and ace the wild card, but after missing the last two weeks of games, Werner’s re-introduction to the team could change things dramatically for them. Will his month off from throwing in league play result in a fresh, rested arm? Or will it create some rust that needs to be shaken off? The bulk of the damage against Reid has always come off slow-pitch, so his ability to lock in on the zone, especially on a team that feasts on lob balls, is crucial to their success. His insertion into the top of a lineup desperately in need of speed and bat-to-ball skill may be a game-changer for the offense, as well.  

The Verdict:
​I don’t think it’s too bold a prediction to say whichever team does more damage on slow-pitch will win this game. Both pitchers are extremely hard to string hits together against, and it’ll likely be one or two big hits that decide this. With the jack-off out of play in the playoffs, this one will continue until a team jumps ahead. Last year, Werner threw a 12-inning shutout in the Wild Card round, and viewers may need to buckle up for another marathon game. 

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